- Category: Features
- Written by Palmer Gibbs
-
Weekly Roundup: Breaking Down Hillary Clinton’s Poll Numbers In New Hampshire
Many news outlets proclaimed former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton the winner of the most recent Democratic debate, held Dec. 19 in New Hampshire. After swatting away pointed barbs from former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders — and despite a late return to her podium post commercial break — Clinton “was the only one on stage Saturday night who looked like she could step into the presidency tomorrow,” according to the Washington Post’s analysis.
While a successful debate performance always calls for celebration within the respective campaign, the Clinton camp is likely extra thrilled its candidate scored while in New Hampshire. Although Clinton boasts a double-digit advantage over her closest rival in national polls, that’s not the case in the Granite State. Using data from RealClearPolitics, InsideGov looks at how the Democratic field is polling.
After a bit of a September slump, Clinton’s numbers bounced back into the 50s in November. As of a few days before Christmas, national polling averages show Clinton leading Sanders by 25 points. O’Malley registers at about 4 percent.
But the story is vastly different in New Hampshire, where Sanders bests Clinton by 8.6 points, as of Dec. 20. As has been the case in national polls, Clinton was sky-high in the state with the first primary, only to dip in September. That dip coincided with a sharp increase for Sanders, signifying the first time he toppled Clinton from her first-place perch. As the visualization shows, on Sept. 14, Sanders led by 13 points in New Hampshire.
Clinton has started to climb again, but Sanders’ numbers keep going up, too. As a longtime politician from neighboring Vermont, Sanders’ appeal among Northeastern Democrats isn’t all that surprising. Although his more nuanced approach to gun legislation puts him at odds with many in his party, for example, Sanders’ positions resonate with voters in a state where many hunt and shoot for sport.
While Sanders continues to find fans among New Hampshirites — known for a fierce independent streak that’s articulated in the state’s “Live Free or Die” motto — Clinton may have the upper hand when it comes to good, old-fashioned politicking. Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, are frequent faces on the state’s all-important retail politics circuit, walking in the Fourth of July parade and speaking to county-level Democrats. Indeed, back in the 2008 presidential campaign, Clinton’s primary win in New Hampshire provided a key boost after she came in a dismal third place in the Iowa caucuses.
A look at the national polls paints Clinton as the Democrats’ presumptive nominee, but she may very well hit a hiccup in New Hampshire this go-around. While a loss there wouldn’t doom her campaign, it could provide the necessary momentum to Sanders (and even O’Malley) to stay in the primary fight.
More: Which Presidential Candidates Are the Most Bullish on Guns?
Follow InsideGov on Twitter: @inside_gov